KONKURS-M Missile Tube, One of the Newly Arrived Anti-Tank Weapons for Syria’s Rebels.

More arms-trade data-sharing. This is a Russian-made anti-tank guided missile tube in rebel possession in Idlib Governorate in Syria. When checked against the stockpile formerly owned by Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s Libya, the production dates match. (More about the well-developed movements of arms from Libya to Syria is here; the match of the KONKURS production dates was determined by examining this image against my own records and then sharing the numbers visible above with a host of people who work with, have access to, research or study Libya’s stockpiles, and then sifting through the replies.)

This image is a screen grab of video shot by the author on May 30. The tube was empty; its missile had been fired a short while before.

The seemingly escalating distribution and use of ATGMs is one of the more interesting recent developments in the war. Many commentators are speculating on the provenance of these weapons, which, given the abundance of these systems globally, and what we know of the shopping by Arab donors in Croatia, Libya and Ukraine, may come from more than one source.  

A cautionary note: This is likely going to be a complex story, and while many voices are rushing to be first, the richer understanding of where all these ATGMs have come from will rely on careful research and multiple, interlocking strands of evidence – not just quickly typed quotes.

One more note, re regional security: Who do you think is most concerned about the increasing evidence that these weapons are in significant play on Syria’s battlefields, and that more could be en route? Obviously, those who serve President Bashar al-Assad. Not far behind, though, are probably those who serve Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, of Iraq.  These weapons, in the hands of Iraq’s reawakened Sunni insurgency, will pose severe challenges to the checkpoint-centric Iraqi security forces, and their heavy vehicles, which have not faced such a threat before. This is potentially a bloody new development for wars in which the weapons to date had been much more familiar to the troops who will be facing this. When you watch the videos of rebels firing their newly acquired ATGMs at Syrian armor — here is an example – it is obvious that Syria’s army has been caught by surprise, and has been leaving main battle tanks and other machines utterly exposed. Iraq’s rolling stock is similarly and routinely used in show-of-presence roles. These kinds of weapons take that kind of confidence and extract a blood tax.